Zhongtai Securities: monetary policy will remain stable in the second half of the year, and the pace of fiscal expenditure is expected to accelerate

Chen Xing, macro chief of Zhongtai securities, said in a research report recently that the credit contraction will slow down in the second half of the year and the monetary policy will remain stable. In May, the growth rate of the stock of social finance has dropped to 11%, which roughly matches the nominal growth rate of the economy this year. It is expected that the credit contraction situation may slow down in the second half of the year. While the risks of economic downturn still exist and the inflation pressure is relieved, the monetary policy will remain neutral, and probably the rate will not adjust the price instruments. Looking forward to the fiscal expenditure in the second half of the year, Zhou Yue, chief executive of fixed income of Zhongtai securities, believes that with the acceleration of the issuance of special bonds, the expenditure on infrastructure related projects in local fiscal expenditure will also increase. Moreover, according to the actual implementation of fiscal expenditure after the implementation of the new budget law, the deviation from the budget at the beginning of the year will be very small, and the fiscal expenditure in the second half of the year is expected to accelerate.