Recently, 28 international and domestic financial institutions released the Consensus Forecasts report, predicting that Chile's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at an average rate of 2.2% over the next decade. This forecast places Chile behind major Latin American economies such as Peru (2.9%), Colombia (2.8%), Argentina (2.4%), and Mexico (2.4%), and just above Brazil (2%).
According to the Chilean newspaper "El Tres," the forecast indicates that Chile's GDP growth rate will be 2.3% in 2024 and 2025, 2.4% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027, and 2.2% in both 2028 and 2029. From 2030 to 2034, the growth rate is expected to slightly decline to 2.1%. Despite a 0.2% economic growth last year, avoiding a recession, the mid-term growth outlook remains bleak as Chile's economy is not expected to achieve substantial recovery in the coming years.
Compared to historical data, the projected average growth rate of 2.2% over the next decade is significantly lower than the 4.2% from 2000 to 2009 and the 3.3% from 2010 to 2019. It is even further from the 6.1% growth rate seen in the early 1990s.
Sergio Lehmann, Chief Economist at Chilean Credit and Investment Bank (BCI), attributed Chile's limited growth potential over the next decade to stagnant productivity and weak investment. Víctor Martínez, an economist at the University of Development (UDD), cited the sluggish recovery of the labor market as a contributing factor.
According to the Latin American Research Association and Liberty and Development Institute (LyD) economist Tomás Flores, Chile's approximately 2% growth rate means that per capita income will grow just slightly over 1%, which is insignificant compared to other regions worldwide. Considering the decline in investment in 2023 and 2024, the long-term average annual growth rate is unlikely to exceed 2%.
Experts suggest that to improve long-term growth, the Chilean government needs to reduce the time required for investment permits, lower investment uncertainty, encourage investment, and enhance productivity. Martínez emphasized the need for political stability, political system reforms, and reforms to the permit system; at the same time, addressing violent crime, improving education coverage and quality, and encouraging women's participation in the labor market are crucial. Flores added that increasing long-term economic growth also requires more investment, higher employment rates, and improved productivity.