JPMorgan Optimistic About Argentina's Economic Outlook, Supports Milei's Reform Agenda
On October 16, JPMorgan, the American financial firm, released a report expressing a positive assessment of the economic policies being implemented by Argentina's Javier Milei government, particularly praising the measures aimed at unifying the foreign exchange market. The report emphasized that the government's proposed unified and sustainable exchange rate system is a crucial measure in combating the crisis of confidence.
JPMorgan forecasts that, based on the current reform trajectory, Argentina's monthly inflation rate could stabilize at 2% by 2025, while the annual inflation rate is expected to decline to 35%.
Despite its optimistic outlook on Argentina's economic recovery, JPMorgan also warned of potential risks. Delays in the process of lifting capital controls may hinder the recovery of economic activity and increase exchange rate volatility, posing potential challenges to economic stability. The report further noted the uncertainty of the political cycle, particularly regarding the legislative elections in 2025, which could impact economic reforms and market stability.
Additionally, analysis from domestic economist Ramiro Castiñera is even more optimistic. Castiñera believes that if the government can maintain strict fiscal and monetary policies, Argentina's inflation rate could fall to 3% or lower by the end of 2024. He even suggested that achieving zero inflation in Argentina within the next few years is not impossible, provided that government policies can be sustained and receive broad support from the market.
Picture Source：JP Morgan