Defense Negotiations Between Saudi Arabia, the United States and Israel Reach An Impasse

Following the video, there were reports of an assassination attempt on the Crown Prince, with casualties among his guards. However, these reports were quickly debunked as the original video, dated March 2024, was found to be from a traffic accident that resulted in a vehicle fire. This misinformation was believed to have been spread deliberately while Israeli forces commenced their march towards Rafah in the Gaza Strip.

Despite the clarity on the video's authenticity, the incident inadvertently highlights the delicate predicament of Crown Prince Salman's government amidst the complex geopolitics of the Middle East. He seeks to secure Saudi Arabia’s safety and standing among Arab nations by strongly condemning Israeli military actions, while also aiming to boost national development through significant agreements with the United States. Saudi Arabia is striving to balance maintaining relations with Western allies and responding to regional conflicts, a task that is increasingly challenging under the current tense circumstances in the Middle East.

According to Bloomberg, the United States and Saudi Arabia are negotiating a defense treaty aimed at reshaping the Middle East. This treaty would help end the war between Israel and Hamas, safeguard American interests in the region, further contain Iran, and pave the way for Saudi Arabia to acquire advanced American weaponry. This deal would also require the Saudi Crown Prince to limit Chinese technology in his country’s most sensitive networks in exchange for significant U.S. investments and support in civilian nuclear projects.

Should the U.S. and Saudi Arabia reach an agreement, they would present Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a choice: join the agreement, which would mean establishing formal diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia for the first time, bringing multilateral investment and regional integration, or risk isolation. A key condition for Netanyahu would be to end the Gaza war and agree to a pathway for Palestinian statehood. The promise of the treaty is substantial, but it now faces significant hurdles. The U.S. Congress is hesitant to approve commitments to militarily protect Saudi Arabia, especially following the 2018 murder of columnist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents, which has led U.S. legislators to remain wary of the Saudi de facto ruler. Moreover, the legislators are displeased with Saudi and OPEC+ members’ actions to cut oil production to support oil prices.

In Israel, Netanyahu’s government’s assault on Rafah has nearly eliminated the possibility of a two-state solution. The Netanyahu administration appears more inclined towards a complete eradication of Hamas rather than recognizing a Palestinian state. Faced with warnings from the Biden administration to halt weapon shipments, Netanyahu on Holocaust Remembrance Day declared that "if Israel must go it alone, Israel will go it alone," ignoring the warnings and attacking Rafah. As the war continues, the rift over military actions between Biden and Netanyahu widens, highlighting Biden's limited influence.

The Saudi government faces dual pressures: its Arab identity makes it difficult to compromise on the Palestinian issue. One of the Crown Prince's main demands for normalizing relations with Israel is that Israeli leaders must make concessions to the Palestinians and commit to "irreversible steps" towards the establishment of a Palestinian state. However, Israel’s continued attacks on Rafah under U.S. pressure send a conflicting message to the long-term ceasefire agreement with Hamas proposed by the U.S. This puts Saudi Arabia in a position where it cannot "betray" its Arab allies, with the Crown Prince openly condemning Israel's actions in Rafah. On the other hand, the Saudi government must also consider the effectiveness of the defense treaty with the U.S., especially as the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches. Saudi Arabia wishes to avoid political gambles and the uncertainty of a potential non-acceptance of the agreement by former President Trump if Biden loses. Furthermore, Iran’s recent offer to share nuclear technology with Saudi Arabia has thrown the Saudi government into a new round of weighing its options and uncertainties.

Once again, the Middle East is in a deadlock.