Various scenarios for Vietnam's economic growth in 2025 are being proposed, but the common thread is that enterprises are considered the core driving force behind economic growth, regardless of the scenario.
Vietnam's Economic Growth Momentum
According to data from the BIDV research team, Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 is projected at 7.5% in a neutral scenario and could reach 8% in an optimistic scenario. Starting from 2026, Vietnam aims to achieve double-digit economic growth.
BIDV Chief Economist Cấn Văn Lực shared these insights at a recent seminar titled "Vietnam's Macroeconomy: Reflecting on 2024, Looking Ahead to 2025." He noted that achieving breakthrough growth at this stage poses a significant challenge for Vietnam.
However, Lực pointed out that the global economic environment faces numerous challenges. Global economic growth is expected to slow to 3.2% in 2024, down from the 2011-2019 average of 3.5%. Additionally, rising geopolitical risks and trade protectionist policies, particularly the increase in anti-dumping investigations, could constrain exports and investment.
Lực stated, "Domestically, total social investment accounts for about 37-40% of GDP, with private enterprises contributing 56%. Final consumption, including household and government spending, makes up 62.5% of GDP. I believe that economic growth will increasingly rely on internal drivers."
Challenges Facing Enterprises
Despite being the main driver of growth, private enterprises face numerous difficulties, including legal issues related to land, rising costs (such as a 30% increase in logistics expenses and higher wages), and the impact of organizational streamlining.
Although private investment growth improved in 2024, it only reached 7%, significantly lower than the pre-pandemic rate of 17%.
Dr. Nguyễn Minh Cỏ from the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) also noted a slowdown in the growth rate of new businesses. Before the pandemic, the ratio of newly established enterprises to those exiting the market was 3:1, but this dropped to 1.18:1 in 2024.
Driving Institutional Reforms
To achieve the high growth target of over 8%, Cấn Văn Lực suggested introducing a new resolution on private economic development to replace the 2017 Resolution No. 10, positioning the private sector as a key driver of the socialist-oriented market economy.
The Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR) proposed six policy priorities. VEPR Deputy Director Nguyễn Quốc Việt emphasized, "These recommendations aim to improve the business environment. After all, enterprises are the primary growth drivers, and it is essential to promote innovation and sustainable development among businesses."