On January 20, 2025, within the first hours of assuming office, President Donald Trump signed five executive orders against Mexico: on border security, enforcement about the drug cartels, immigration policy, tariff adjustments, and the highly unpopular renaming of the Gulf of Mexico. The wide-reaching measures immediately called for acerbic responses from the Mexican government, as President Claudia Sheinbaum denounced the unilateral decisions and promised international support to protect Mexico's sovereignty. Meanwhile, the Trump administration framed these steps in the name of "national security", raising further pressure on the southern neighbor.
The executive orders include a declaration of a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border, under which Trump ordered an expansion of the border wall and deployed additional military personnel, claiming that "America's sovereignty is under attack". Moreover, the administration officially designated major Mexican cartels, including the Sinaloa Cartel, foreign terrorist organizations, and Trump threatened to authorize U.S. special forces operations inside Mexico—a proposal met with fierce opposition from Sheinbaum, who warned that Mexico "will never allow foreign military intervention." He also sought to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the "American Gulf" due to the supposition that it "historically belongs to the United States", which Sheinbaum immediately objected to, since the name is internationally recognized and has been used since 1607. Trump's administration declared that starting February 1, 25% tariffs will be imposed on all Mexican imports as part of a broader effort against fentanyl smuggling, to which Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard called a breach of the USMCA and vowed to take up with the WTO.
Trump’s hardline policies against Mexico are likely to reverberate beyond North America, potentially disrupting global trade and impacting Chinese businesses. Stronger US tariffs on Mexican goods would jack up production costs and stretch the trading relationship with China, which has emerged as one of Mexico's most important economic partners in Latin America. Any negative impact on the Mexican economy as a result of U.S. trade restrictions could heighten uncertainty for Chinese companies operating in Mexico on their investment and trading activities. Furthermore, Trump's aggressive stance on border security and cartel enforcement may increase potential instability in the social and political contexts in Mexico, posing operational risks to Chinese manufacturers and infrastructure developers with interests there.
Given the rise in tensions, Chinese enterprises are advised to closely follow developments, reassess their vulnerabilities, and establish flexible strategies with the goal of mitigating prospective disruptions while realizing new opportunities toward regional cooperation.