The renminbi has accelerated its appreciation toward the end of the year, breaking through several key psychological levels. On Thursday, the offshore yuan strengthened past 7.0 per dollar, while the onshore yuan rose above 7.01 on the same day, both marking their strongest levels since late September 2024. The move highlights an asymmetric appreciation of the Chinese currency amid broad U.S. dollar weakness.
The central parity rate was set 0.11% stronger, the largest upward adjustment since late August, at 7.0392 per dollar. The gap between the fixing and market forecasts widened to 241 pips, approaching the record deviation of 252 pips seen in February 2022.
The pace of yuan appreciation has picked up notably since December. The offshore USDCNH rate has fallen by about 500 pips over the period, while adjustments to the daily fixing have become more flexible. The currency’s strength has been supported by multiple factors, including China’s record trade surplus of roughly USD 1 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, a rise in corporate foreign-exchange conversions, and a weakening dollar. Market expectations for further yuan appreciation have been increasing.