CITIC Securities macro: maintain the judgment of GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter

CITIC Securities macro issued a document saying that the year-on-year indicators of some economic data from January to February 2022 exceeded market expectations, which we believe reflects the gradual recovery of the economy. Under the policies of "ensuring supply and price stability" and "stabilizing market players", the growth rate of industrial added value accelerated. Under the policy of "stabilizing investment", the main areas of fixed asset investment made full efforts. Among them, the growth rate of infrastructure investment increased significantly, the manufacturing industry maintained rapid growth, and the growth rate of real estate investment that the market was worried about a while ago also changed from negative to positive. In addition, we suggest to pay attention to the fact that since March, sporadic outbreaks have occurred in many places, which will objectively drag down the trend of national economic recovery. Therefore, the higher than expected upward consumption growth from January to February may be under pressure in March. However, on the whole, as there is still room for upward growth at the production end in March, we maintain the judgment that GDP increased by 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter.