The prospect of the US economy is becoming increasingly uncertain
On March 10 local time, as US President Donald Trump's trade policy has proven to be more radical than expected, potentially leading to rising prices and tightening financial conditions, Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for US gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2025. It has revised the US GDP growth forecast from 2.4% at the beginning of the year to 1.7%. It is the first time in two and a half years that Goldman Sachs has downgraded its economic outlook for the United States.
Goldman Sachs said that the reason for the downgrade is the significant deterioration in the outlook of US trade policy. Tariffs will lead to higher consumer prices in the United States, a tighter financial environment, and slower corporate investment, thus putting pressure on US economic growth.
The prospect of the US economy is full of uncertainties. The Guardian reported on March 10 that Wall Street economists have lowered their forecasts for US economic growth, warning that the destructive impact of the trade war on the US economy is greater than initially expected. Goldman Sachs analysts said that the probability of a US economic recession has risen from 15% to 20%. Morgan Stanley has revised its forecast for US GDP growth in 2025 from 1.9% to 1.5%.
Recently, several US financial analysis institutions have also noticed changes in the economic situation between China and the United States. Global capital is rapidly adjusting its allocation map, and "being bullish on" and "investing in" China has become a global trend.
On February 28, J.P.Morgan Chase & Co, a well-known US investment bank, released a report pointing out that the potential of China's AI applications focuses on fields such as autonomous driving, robotics, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things. The digital economy has become a new long-term growth point for China's economy.
On March 9, Goldman Sachs predicted that in the next 10 years, the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to boost the overall profitability of listed companies in China by 2.5% annually, and may attract more than USD 200 billion (CNY 1,449.32 billion) in capital inflows in the next year.