Under the escalating "Tariff Blitz", the US economy may face a "Trump Recession" or even "Stagflation"
On March 26 local time, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order at the White House, announcing a 25% tariff on all imported cars. The relevant measures will take effect on April 2. Trump stated that the car tariff would be permanent. He also said that no tariff would be required if cars are manufactured in the United States.
On the same day, White House spokeswoman Harrison Fields said that the 25% tariff measure would apply to imported passenger cars and light trucks, as well as key auto parts (engines, transmissions, powertrain components, and electrical components). Tariffs on other parts may be increased if necessary.
Trump also said on the same day that the United States would impose tariffs on timber and drugs.
On March 24, US President Trump said that he would announce additional tariffs on cars, timber, and chips in the coming days. Trump also said that as the "reciprocal tariff" deadline of April 2 approaches, the United States may offer tariff preferences to many countries, but "reciprocity" is required. Trump said that the European Union has agreed to reduce the car tariff to 2.5%, the same level as that of the United States. In addition, Trump further explained that not all tariffs will take effect on April 2.
Earlier on March 24, Trump announced on social media that he would impose an additional 25% tariff on countries purchasing Venezuelan oil and natural gas on top of the existing tariffs. The relevant tariffs will take effect on April 2.
On February 13, Trump signed a memorandum requiring relevant departments to determine the "reciprocal tariffs" with each foreign trading partner. Economists and market participants are concerned that under the Trump administration's escalating "tariff blitz", the US economy may face a "Trump recession" or even "stagflation". Bruce Kasman, chief global economist at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., expressed deep concern about the US economy earlier this month. He predicted that the probability of a US economic recession this year is about 40%, significantly higher than the 30% predicted at the beginning of the year.
